IT Workforce Shortages?

The Society of Information Management recognizes the shortage (or coming shortage) of IT workers:

http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&taxonomyName=education_training&articleId=284867&taxonomyId=56&intsrc=kc_top

This is always a contentious issue depending on where you are sitting in the labor market. In Minnesota, we have the highest number of IT-related job vacancies since before the recession. On the other hand, there is continuous hand-wringing over job losses to India and other places. Is there truly a shortage? It all depends on how you define shortage of course. If you define shortage by the conditions that took place in the 90's, then we are not in a shortage nor will be ever be in a shortage in our lifetimes. The 90's were an aberation. We are not likely to ever see that kind of a job market again. Is there DEMAND for IT workers? An emphatic "yes" but not for everybody. This is a skills based economy and those skills in demand can be very very specific. Going out and talking to job seekers, I see very few people with IT backgrounds anymore- unlike 2001-04 when they were limitless. When I do meet unemployed IT workers, they often have outmoded skills- COBOL, Fortran, etc.. In talking to employers, I meet few who only want "coders." Increasingly, they want people who can code but who are also fluent in the language of business and who can communicate effectively with customers and coworkers. Basically, the IT job market of today is much like most jobs- dependent on skills (not always technical) and not necessarily secure.

Is there going to be some mass demand for IT workers based on the retirement of the Boomers? No, the age structure of IT occupations is younger than the average occupational group- certainly younger than in healthcare, manufacturing or government. Certainly, there will be knowlege transfer problems with retirements but this will probably not create a "90's style" rush on IT workers. There will certainly be demand for managers though I would hardly call it a crisis. The Boomer issue will be crucial in some areas like healthcare, government and maybe education but probably not private-sector IT

Among those responding to the above story are people who contend that they would never send their children into IT. Is IT a good occupational move? Yes, look around the job market and see what is out there. If you are looking for moderately good wages with good job security- go to healthcare. Otherwise, there is no security anymore. This is a two-tier labor market of high skill, high wage jobs and low skill, low wage jobs and not much in between. IT jobs pay higher than average wages, are more likely to have benefits and are STILL probably most secure than those "good jobs" in manufacturing. The downside is that staying up to date in skills is crucial. Every recession is going to result in an occupational and industrial house cleaning. Workers (in all occupations) need to build their own safety net. While our government might bail you out if a hurricane hits your house, they are not going to bail you out when your job vanishes.

Is the shortage of IT workers overblown? Perhaps....I don't blame the BLS projections though. There are many industries that complain about shortages of workers- even manufacturing. I truly question the intensity of these "shortages." However, there is a solution to this theoretical problem and that solution is wages. If employers truly need a quality workforce, then they have to be willing to pay for it. The same goes for training. Employers can no longer expect the education system to create "ready-made" workers. Employers can solve this "shortage" by effectively training their incumbent staff rather that complain that the new generation of workers have a "poor work ethic" or lack skills. There are thousands (millions?) of disaffected middle age workers who just might jump at the chance to upgrade their skills or do something more challenging.

Europe Enters "The War for Talent"

The European Research Council has set aside a new fund for "blue sky" research:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6399157.stm

The fund has been created to make Europe more economically competitive- the same rationale that gets used in the U.S. by people who have little knowledge of science and little more knowledge of economics. It was interestingly inaugurated in Germany- the birth place of academic scientific research with commercial application. From an economics standpoint, much needs to be done in Europe to make the transfer of academic research to commercial application more seamless. However, regardless of the rationale for creating this fund, the U.S. should take notice. The U.S. cannot expect to use Europe (or China or India) as a reservoir of ready-made scientific talent. The biggest thing to come out of this fund may have little to do with Europe creating "The next big thing" and everything to do with Europe holding on to its best and brightest.